Project Investigators: Dr. Berna Eren Tokgoz, Dr. Cagatay Tokgoz, Dr. Ginger Gummelt, Dr. Brian Williams and Dr. Seokyon Hwang
Natural hazards, including floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme
temperatures, have been demonstrated to exert significant impacts on global economies and societies.
Numerous structures in the US sustained damage as a result of the combined effects of wave forces and
debris impact during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
Although modeling and simulation tools have seen widespread use in assessing resilience within a typical
community, there is a noticeable scarcity of such tools tailored for integrated community as a system. This
deficit necessitates additional research efforts.
To overcome this necessity, the objective of the proposed research is to develop a customized community
resilience framework based on resilience indices and quantify resilience. The concept of resilience is
heavily influenced by functionality and interdependency, which are critical in determining a resilience
index. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) allows for condensation of data into definable and utilizable
subsets whereas Entropy Weight Method (EWM) assigns specific weights to each indicator, component,
and dimension over time. A significant consideration in this process is the availability of historical
functionality data spanning several years. This approach enables the application of machine learning
algorithms to develop an optimized model capable of predicting a community resilience index for
subsequent years or decades. Therefore, it is evident that this phase requires increased focus and exploration
to develop an innovative model for quantifying composite resilience index.
In this phase, prediction of resilience index will be our main interest. To do prediction, we will identify
methods to enhance our model’s ability to predict the composite resilience index. Supervised machine
learning techniques will be employed to discern genuine trends in the composite resilience index and
effectively predict this index prior to catastrophic events, based on historical data. Specifically, we suggest
utilizing deep learning algorithms such as Neural Network (NN) and non-deep learning algorithms like
Decision Tree Classifiers (DTC) to develop a predictive model. We aim to develop a comprehensive model
that not only represents the current resilience index of a community but also predicts future indices. It is
important to note that the primary reason for employing NN and DTC in constructing the prediction model
is to mitigate the limitations of the EWM model. The EWM model’s dependency on the number of years
can lead to significant errors when used to predict the composite resilience index based on historical data.
Therefore, we will utilize supervised machine learning algorithms for accurate prediction.